The Philip Rivers era is a distant memory at this point. The Los Angeles Chargers‘ Justin Herbert era has passed the half-decade mark, and it’s time to take stock of the new Chargers quarterback’s work.
Some may compare Herbert to Rivers, claiming it’s very familiar between the two eras thus far. However, a dive into the numbers paints a very different and much more alarming picture.
Philip Rivers’ First NFL Years
The Chargers quarterback of yore didn’t start his first season until the start of his third year in the league. It was a wait, but it was worth it. Rivers began with a 14-2 stomping job in which he threw for 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
All told, in his first five years, Rivers managed to avoid finishing under .500, throwing for 135 touchdowns and 57 interceptions. The numbers were impressive, and the regular season reliability was solid.
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However, aside from 2007 (2-1), Rivers failed to win multiple playoff games in the same season. He had no problems getting there, but he had trouble staying around, although he could knock out a team here and there.
Justin Herbert’s First Los Angeles Chargers Years
To be fair to Herbert, while Rivers had two years to soak in the NFL before his first starting season, Herbert was thrown into the fire from the first day.
Herbert outperformed Rivers in most throwing statistical comparisons (66.6% completion rate, 4336 yards, 31 touchdowns, and ten interceptions), but came up short in the wins department.
Herbert started his career under .500, going 6-9 in his first season. His struggle throughout his career has been finishing above .500 and carrying the momentum into January in winning seasons. Despite finishing above .500 three times in five seasons, he has yet to win his first playoff game.
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Of course, Herbert’s ability to run and scramble is a level beyond Rivers, tallying 13 touchdowns and 1217 yards on the ground to Rivers’ two rushing touchdowns and 268 rushing yards over their first half decades in the league.
Overall, an oversimplified comparison between the two is that both Herbert and Rivers were able to put up the flashy numbers at times, but failed to deliver in the playoffs.
Herbert isn’t ahead of Rivers or even tied with the quarterback. He’s behind.
How Herbert Can Catch Up
Herbert’s passing touchdown numbers in his first five seasons are ahead of Rivers, but his playoff production trails Rivers significantly compared to where Rivers was half a decade into his career.
A Super Bowl appearance would go a long way to tie Rivers in terms of career accomplishments at this point in his career and help make up for the sluggish playoff production to this point.
A Super Bowl win is Herbert’s only chance to pull ahead of Rivers in 2025. However, when it comes to playoff production, Herbert trails Rivers enough that even just a Super Bowl appearance and loss would arguably still leave a gap if he wanted to pass Rivers.
While the state of the franchise is in an exciting place going into the second year of the Jim Harbaugh era, it’s going to need to deliver for Herbert to have any chance of calling the era an improvement over what the Chargers had with Rivers at his peak, meaning a deep playoff run this season and a deep playoff run in 2026, creating two deep playoff runs for Herbert compared to just one for Rivers.
Will Justin Herbert emerge from Rivers’ shadow or build himself a cell behind the celebrated quarterback?