The Los Angeles Rams head into the 2025 season as one of the NFL’s most intriguing teams, with projections ranging from borderline dominance to potential disappointment. According to NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund, the team’s win total floor sits at 6.2, with a ceiling as high as 12.9. That 6.7-game gap is among the widest in the league — and the main reason comes down to the quarterback position.
“Is Matthew Stafford the most underrated former No. 1 overall draft pick ever? I could make that argument,” Frelund wrote. “I also worry that this preseason back injury is going to impact his production, which is part of what drives the gigantic 6.7-game spread between the Rams’ floor and their ceiling.”
Stafford’s Health Defines the Season
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The Rams expect Stafford, who missed much of training camp with a back issue, to start Sunday’s opener against the Houston Texans. Head coach Sean McVay confirmed the 17-year veteran is “ready to play” after returning to full participation in 11-on-11 drills.
But questions linger. Stafford’s injury — described as persistent soreness tied to a disc problem — raises the specter of durability concerns in live action. As McVay himself admitted, the team has approached his recovery with “caution” throughout the summer.
If Stafford can stay upright, analysts like ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky believe the Rams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. “This is a team that with Stafford can win the Super Bowl,” Orlovsky said. “With Jimmy Garoppolo, I think he can keep them afloat — a playoff-contending football team — but by no means are we talking about a team that legitimately threatens and challenges Philadelphia for the NFC Championship.”
The Garoppolo Factor
That’s where the contingency plan comes in. Veteran Jimmy Garoppolo, signed as a reliable backup last offseason, has been handling first-team reps while Stafford has managed his back. Garoppolo, 33, boasts a 43-21 career record and has a postseason pedigree, including a Super Bowl appearance with San Francisco in 2019.
“Jimmy Garoppolo is a starting quarterback,” McVay said during camp. “Obviously, we feel so fortunate to have somebody like Matthew leading the way, but Jimmy’s done a great job.”
Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur echoed the sentiment, praising Garoppolo’s command of the huddle: “The show goes on when we’re out here. … Going into Year 2, he knows this locker room, and the guys don’t blink when he’s out there.”
Still, Garoppolo represents stability more than ceiling. He can keep the Rams competitive, but his presence caps their potential in a stacked NFC.
The High-Stakes Equation
That balance — Stafford’s upside versus Garoppolo’s steadiness — is exactly what makes the Rams’ projections so volatile. The offense is loaded with weapons, from rising star Puka Nacua to newly acquired Davante Adams. The defense still has cornerstone talent and continuity under Chris Shula. On paper, this is a championship-caliber roster.
But Stafford’s health will dictate how far Los Angeles can go. If his back holds up, the Rams could realistically push 12 or more wins and contend deep into January. If not, the “gigantic” spread that Frelund highlights will come into play — leaving the Rams somewhere closer to average, clinging to playoff hopes behind a capable but limited backup.
The bottom line is clear: the Rams’ season rides on one factor. Stafford’s availability doesn’t just decide who takes the first snap in Houston — it may ultimately determine whether Los Angeles is playing in February or watching from home.
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