It’s been three seasons since Justin Herbert last threw 30 touchdown passes for the Los Angeles Chargers. That might not sound like a drought, but in today’s NFL, only five quarterbacks hit that number in 2024—so when FTN’s Daniel Kelley predicted that Herbert would eclipse 30 TDs again in 2025, it turned heads for good reason.
Herbert started his career with a bang, tossing 31 and 38 touchdowns in his first two seasons. But injuries, coaching turnover, and inconsistent supporting casts have pulled those numbers down. Over the last three years, he’s thrown 25, 20, and 23 touchdowns, respectively—still respectable, but far from the elite efficiency he showed early on.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert Poised to Return to 30-TD Form in 2025, Says Analyst
Kelley believes this year could be different. For the first time in years, Herbert enters a season with continuity, both from a schematic and personnel standpoint. Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have had a full offseason to build around Herbert’s strengths, and the weapons are quietly impressive.
The Chargers drafted Ladd McConkey in the second round after his seven-touchdown season at Georgia. Quentin Johnston, who took clear steps forward in 2024, returns after scoring eight touchdowns. Add in the healthy return of Mike Williams—a proven red-zone threat who once hauled in nine touchdowns from Herbert—and you’ve got a dangerous trio of receivers. New running back Omarion Hampton also adds receiving upside out of the backfield.
Herbert’s efficiency already compares favorably to greats like Peyton Manning, especially over their first five seasons. Herbert has completed 66.5% of his passes for 21,093 yards and 137 touchdowns—throwing 55 fewer interceptions than Manning did in the same span. Still, the pressure is building. Herbert’s been called everything from a “social media quarterback” to the Patrick Ewing of this quarterback generation—a talent stuck in the shadow of greatness (i.e., Patrick Mahomes).
Former teammate Kyle Van Noy recently urged Herbert to “relax a little” and focus on leadership and the intangibles. Harbaugh’s arrival may help foster that growth—and if Herbert can take the next step both as a quarterback and as a locker room presence, 30 touchdowns may just be the start.
Herbert’s never lacked talent. In 2025, he might finally have the infrastructure to match it.
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