The USC Trojans are coming off a signature win over the Michigan Wolverines, in what might have been one of the most defining wins in the Lincoln Riley era. Now, the question is whether or not that victory carries over ahead of a matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Ahead of Saturday night’s kickoff, let’s dive into our USC vs Notre Dame predictions. As always, our analysis will include plenty of stats that demonstrate how we reached our picks.
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King Miller Delivers 80-plus Yards, 1 TD
The bad news for Lincoln Riley heading into this USC vs Notre Dame matchup is that his depth at running back is now decimated. Eli Sanders (knee) is done for the season and Waymond Jordan (ankle) is out 4-6 weeks. The beauty of college football, though, is unlikely heroes emerge every week and walk-on running back King Miller is the embodiment of that.
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Miller, a former 247 Sports three-star recruit, was just named the Big Ten Freshman of the Week and earned the Burlsworth Trophy Walk-On of the Week after torching Michigan for 172 scrimmage yards and averaging 8.6 yards per touch. That performance has earned more opportunities and we like this matchup.
Notre Dame allowed 135 scrimmage yards and a 4.5 yards per carry average to Miami running backs CharMar Brown and Mark Fletcher Jr. in Week 1. The following week, Le’Veon Moss put up 81 yards and a 4.1 yards per carry average against them. With the Fighting Irish putting so much emphasis into trying to slow down Jayden Maiava, Miller (10.7 yards per carry this season) will rip off an explosive run and finish Saturday with 80-plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr Throws for 275-plus yards, 3 TDs
One concern with USC heading into this matchup is its pass defense. Against Michigan (4 pressures) and Illinois (1 pressure), the Trojans’ defense mustered just 5 total pressures and 2 sacks on 59 dropbacks. That led to Luke Altmyer and Duane Underwood combining for 535 passing yards with a 4-1 TD-INT ratio, while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt. That lack of a pass rush is a big problem against Notre Dame.
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When operating from a clean pocket this season, per PFF, quarterback CJ Carr boasts a 69 percent completion rate, averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with an 11-2 TD-INT line. When pressured, he completes just 48.6 percent of his passes and averages 8.1 yards per attempt.
Also noteworthy, Notre Dame’s offensive line has allowed the seventh-fewest pressures (22) among Power 4 teams since Week 2 and it ranks 18th in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency (91.5). This projects to be a game where Carr is given a clean pocket pretty often and he’ll use that to burn USC for 3 touchdowns and 275-plus yards at Notre Dame Stadium.
Jayden Maiava Puts Up Over 300 yards
Just as it would be a mistake to think that because USC’s defense ranks seventh in sacks per game (3.33), it’s also wrong to think the Fighting Irish’s defense has turned things around in the last three games. The realities is that this pass defense is more like what we saw in the first three games (289.3 pass ypg, 8.2 ypa, 7-3 TD-INT) than the last three games (201.3 pass ypg, 6.04 ypa, 1-8 TD-INT)
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Jayden Maiava is playing exceptionally well this season, including as of late. While he does have a pair of interceptions, the Trojans’ quarteack has completed 73.3 percent of his 75 pass attempts, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with a 4-2 TD-INT line against Illinois and Michigan. We anticipate him carving up Notre Dame’s defense, delivering a season-best performance (relative to performance).
USC Trojans Beat the Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium
The USC Trojans haven’t won at Notre Dame Stadium since 2011, when Matt Barkley defeated the Fighting Irish 31-17 thanks to a huge performance (119 yards and 2 touchdowns) from Robert Woods. That’s changing on Saturday night. USC has the more experienced quarterback and the better defensive coordinator, two critical factors that feel like they could determine this matchup.
We do anticipate USC and Notre Dame both eclipsing 30 points, which would be the second consecutive year that’s happened. Ultimately, some flaws in the game plan by defensive coordinator Chris Ash and the inconsistencies of Notre Dame’s ground game prove costly in a home loss to the Trojans. On the bright side for supporters of the Fighting Irish, this is the game that results in Ash getting sent packing.
