In the aftermath of Saturday’s shocking collapse to Maryland, the Trojan Family is still emotionally reeling while dizzily contemplating existential questions about the program’s direction with Lincoln Riley at the helm.
One of the more controversial topics is how close the Trojans have been in their four 2024 losses.
Lincoln Riley likes to repeatedly point out being simply one play away from victory in these losses, and while that logic isn’t necessarily inaccurate as evidenced by USC’s four defeats by a combined 14 points with fourth-quarter leads in all games, it’s also highly dangerous. The logic works both ways and serves as an illusion of progress.
Without further ado, the six plays that would have sent Riley from 22-12 to 16-18 as USC Trojans coach.
2022 Oregon State – Brett Neilon Doesn’t Nudge Caleb Williams
The 7th-ranked USC Trojans found themselves in a dogfight against a physical, gritty, and underrated Oregon State Beavers squad within the backdrop of foggy Corvallis.
With the Trojans down 14-10 and under three minutes left in the fourth quarter, USC faced a 4th & 6 from their own 43-yard line.
Eventual Heisman winner Caleb Williams bought time before eventually needing to scramble for a first down. Williams found a bit of daylight but was ultimately stuffed about 1.5 yards from the sticks in a massive scrum before offensive lineman Neilon barricaded the mosh pit from behind to propel the pile beyond the chains.
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With the fresh set of downs, Williams eventually found Jordan Addison for a 21-yard strike with 1:13 left in the game for the Trojans to escape that feisty Beavers team 17-14.
Without the “Neilon Nudge,” the Beavers would have been able to take over on downs and run out the clock for a 14-10 triumph.
2022 UCLA – Korey Foreman Doesn’t Intercept Dorian Thompson-Robinson
In what was arguably the most electric Victory Bell game of the 21st century, the USC Trojans managed to escape the Rose Bowl in a thrilling shootout, 48-45.
Neither team had any answer for the other’s offense with teams trading touchdowns at will, particularly in the second half.
Finally, Bruins’ star edge rusher Laiatu Latu sacked Williams on 3rd & 10 with 2:27 left to play. The Bruins got the ball back with an air of inevitable triumph to close out their crosstown rivals. UCLA proceeded to march 32 yards in just over a minute, and on 3rd & 5, Thompson-Robinson inexplicably threw a pass right to Korey Foreman, one of the most decorated Trojans recruits ever, with a wide open Kazmeir Allen stranded on the far side flat.
If DTR makes the right read, the Bruins get at least a 20+ yard chunk play and set themselves up for Victory Bell ecstasy. Instead, Foreman’s sole defining moment as a Trojan temporarily preserved the USC Trojans playoff aspirations.
2023 Arizona – Jedd Fisch Doesn’t Go For Two In Overtime
In what was one of the most bizarre Coliseum nights in recent memory, the 9th-ranked Trojans were expected to have an easy time against the upstart, unranked 3-2 Arizona Wildcats.
In a game of wild twists and turns, the Trojans inexplicably botched a field goal snap as time expired with the game tied at 28. While USC scored on their opening overtime possession, it was evident the team was still on their heels from requiring the extra time.
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On the first play of the Wildcats’ opening overtime possession, Noah Fifita effortlessly found Jacob Cowing for a 25-yard strike. Given the defense’s putrid performance to that point, coupled with Cowing’s 10 catch 88-yard, four-touchdown virtuoso effort, particularly in short yardage, the whole stadium was expecting Fisch to go for two and the win with all the momentum in hand.
Instead, he overthought it and kicked the extra point. That flinch of doubt allowed USC to resettle and eventually win in triple overtime, courtesy of a Williams ballerina-esque two-point scamper.
If Fisch just went with his gut and followed the stadium sentiment, the Wildcats would have undoubtedly found Cowing yet again en route to a 36-35 stunner instead of the 43-41 Trojan conquest.
2023 Cal – Eric Gentry Doesn’t Deflect Two-Point Conversion
A few weeks after the near Arizona upset followed by back-to-back debacles against Notre Dame and Utah, the Trojans were in the teeth of Alex Grinch’s ineptitude as they found themselves in yet another shootout against an inferior opponent.
A 3-4 Cal team outplayed the Men of Troy for most of the game, and despite self-inflicted wounds in allowing the Trojans to convert a 43-29 deficit into a 50-43 advantage, the Golden Bears found themselves seamlessly marching down the field for the game-tying touchdown with 58 seconds left.
Head coach Justin Wilcox rolled the dice to go for the win and quarterback Francisco Mendoza had a wide-open tight end on the nearside pylon. Miraculously, the 6’6 Eric Gentry swatted the pass away at the last minute to preserve the Trojans’ uninspiring escape.
If Gentry has a slightly less wingspan or even a split second late off his break, the Golden Bears would stun the Trojans in a barn-burner, 51-50.
2024 LSU – Garrett Nussmeier Makes Right Read In 4th Quarter
The signature win of the Riley Trojans tenure wasn’t without its drama. The first play after the 4th quarter two-minute timeout saw LSU trailing USC 20-17 but driving all the way to the Trojans 14-yard line.
On 2nd & 8, Tigers quarterback Nussmeier made the wrong read on a run-pass option. Had he handed the ball off to running back John Emery Jr. with the Trojan edge rush losing containment, Emery was headed for a straight-line touchdown or at the very least a 10+ yard gain that would have positioned LSU to be 1st & Goal inside the Trojans 4-yard line.
Instead, Nussmeier pulled the ball back and threw an inaccurate ball in the flat to wide receiver Aaron Anderson, setting up an obvious passing situation on third down. Had the LSU signal caller simply handed the ball off to Emery Jr., who was the game’s most valuable and impactful offensive player to that point, the Tigers would have been up 24-20 with 1:50 to play.
Given the Trojans are now 0-4 in such situations, the Tigers would have inevitably held off USC for a dramatic opening win.
2024 Wisconsin – Tyrell Henry Doesn’t Fumble
The lone Trojans BIG-10 win in 2024 was courtesy of the Wisconsin Badgers. Lost in the remorse of this 3-game losing streak was the Trojans trailing the Badgers 21-10 and punting the ball away after a three-and-out to start the second half.
Up two scores and with possession would have allowed Wisconsin to continue chewing the clock, shortening the game and wearing out the USC defensive front seven into the fourth quarter. However, Henry inexplicably muffed the USC punt, giving the Trojans a short field and a jolt of momentum to begin their comeback.
Without that fumble, the game would be played at Wisconsin’s tempo, and with how USC performed in similar grinder contests against Michigan and Minnesota, the Men of Troy were headed for defeat.
This is why the “one play away” philosophy is such a double-edged Trojan sword. The reality is football isn’t corporate America, a Hollywood film, or a political campaign – there are no points for degrees, gradients, or percentages. It’s absolute in nature, you either win or lose.
With the game played at the margins, the law of averages tends to converge over the season and all teams get their fair share of breaks and heartbreaks.
USC is 3-4 this season and Lincoln Riley is 22-12 overall – not better, not worse, not closer, not further…and at the moment, simply not good enough.