Lincoln Riley is entering his 4th season with the USC Trojans. His tenure started off red hot, going 11-3, and seeing QB phenom Caleb Williams win the Heisman trophy.
The team regressed, at least in terms of record, over the next two years, and the noise in Los Angeles began to intensify.
After making a quarterback change last season, the team finished 3-1, won the Las Vegas Bowl over Texas A&M, and rode into the offseason with a lot of momentum. That offseason saw more elite coaching hires and the addition of one of the top front offices, led by Chad Bowden, in all of college football.
All of this has culminated in the Trojans currently holding the No. 1 2026 recruiting class, and perhaps the most momentum the program has had since the Pete Carroll years.
So, how hot is Lincoln Riley’s seat entering the season, if at all?
Gauging USC Trojans Head Coach Lincoln Riley’s Seat Temperature
Shehan Jeyarajah of CBS Sports took on the task of ranking college football coaches heading into this season and their hot seat ranking.
How did they come to their conclusions? Nine of CBS Sports’ college football insiders and experts each gave the 136 coaches in the FBS a rating between “0” (being safe) and “5” (being on a blazing inferno of a seat). The scores were combined and averaged in order to come up with a true ranking for each coach.
Nine FBS coaches were given a 4 or 5, putting them firmly on the hot seat.
Lincoln Riley was not one of those nine.
The nine hot-seat coaches are:
- Sonny Cumbie – SMU – Hottest seat
- Brent Venables – Oklahoma
- Trent Dilfer – UAB
- Mike Gundy – Oklahoma State
- Brent Brennan – Arizona
- Sam Pittman – Arkansas
- Hugh Freeze – Auburn
- Brent Pry – Virginia Tech
- Scott Satterfield – Cincinnati
Then, they list their “getting warmer” candidates, but probably safe this year.
- Joe Moorhead – Akron
- Billy Napier – Florida
- Luke Fickell – Wisconsin
- Mark Carney – Kent State
- Mark Stoops – Kentucky
Not that this list is everything, but according to CBS, Lincoln Riley’s seat isn’t even warm at this point.
If you have been watching the USC LAFB show, this goes in line with what we have been saying. While there certainly have been plenty of mistakes, growing pains, and frustrations, it has always felt like Riley would be given at least 5 years to get things fully turned around.
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Part of that is due to his insane buyout, which is just not logical. But the other part is due to all of the changes in college football right now. AD Jen Cohen needs to remain steadfast and put trust in what Riley is building in order to keep the program progressing. Blowing it up could set it even further back.
Well, the latter part of that reasoning certainly seems to be paying off. We need to see it translate to wins, but as I said at the beginning of this article, the momentum around the USC Trojans is about as high as it has ever been.
If Riley and the Trojans win 9+ games this year and keep their 2026 class intact, that hot seat will be as cool as the other side of the pillow.