The UCLA Bruins head into Saturday’s Rose Bowl matchup against Penn State as a 25-point underdog. On paper, the Nittany Lions are the superior team in every phase. They average nearly 40 points a game while allowing just 12.
UCLA, by contrast, is scoring only 14.3 points per game, third-worst in the nation behind UMass and Northern Illinois. Winning is off the table, but covering the spread will require playing close to a perfect game, which is more possible.
UCLA Bruins Start With The Run Game
Penn State’s defense took a hit when linebacker Tony Rojas, the team’s second-leading tackler, went down with a long-term injury. UCLA has to test the middle of that defense early with Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas.
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Even modest gains on the ground can slow the game down, chew the clock, and set up play-action shots. If the Bruins fall into another early hole, the game will get out of hand quickly.
Quick Throws For Nico Iamaleava
Protection has been shaky, and long-developing plays aren’t realistic against Penn State’s front. The Bruins need quick passes—slants, outs, and screens—to keep the chains moving and give Nico Iamaleava a rhythm.
At times this year, Iamaleava has been forced to serve as the team’s leading rusher. If he’s UCLA’s only source of offense again, the cover is gone.
Getting receivers like the returning Rico Flores Jr. involved on intermediate routes is one way to attack PSU’s younger linebackers.
Jerry Neuheisel will be calling plays as the OC, so what he dials up early will be crucial.
Defensive Discipline
Stopping Kaytron Allen on early downs is critical. UCLA’s linebackers, Isaiah Chisom and JonJon Vaughns, have been two of the most productive tacklers in the country. They’ll need to swarm gaps and make Penn State earn everything.
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The UCLA Bruins can sprinkle in blitzes to test quarterback Drew Allar, who already has a pair of interceptions this season. But the overall strategy must be bend-but-don’t-break—forcing field goals instead of touchdowns is the only way to keep this close.
Limit Mistakes, Shorten the Game
Turnovers and penalties have plagued the UCLA Bruins all year. Against Penn State, every possession has to end with a punt, field goal, or touchdown—anything else tilts the game toward a blowout.
Field position will also matter. Freshman kicker Mateen Bhaghani has the leg to convert long attempts, so UCLA should take points whenever they’re available.
Penn State is the better team, but they’re also 0-4 against the spread this year. If UCLA can run the ball, hit quick throws, and force Penn State into a few long drives, the Bruins have a shot to stay within the number. A win is unlikely, but a cover is possible if they play disciplined, mistake-free football and keep the clock moving.