Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic is in the best shape of his career ahead of the 2025-’26 season and has positioned himself as the new face of the storied franchise after signing a three-year, $165 million contract extension. Many around the game believe all of it will culminate in him finishing higher than ever before in NBA MVP voting.
In a poll of ESPN NBA insiders, Doncic (62 points) finished second behind Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (83 points) in a poll predicting which player will win NBA MVP this upcoming season.
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- Luka Doncic stats: 28.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 43.8% FG, 3.6 3PM per game, 0.164 Win Shares per 48 Minutes in 28 games with the Lakers
The voting is somewhat reflective of the NBA MVP odds for next season, with Doncic (+370) third behind Jokic (+310) and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. ESPN’s insiders indicated that some of the renewed confidence in Doncic stems from the improvements he made to his offseason training.
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Why the History of NBA MVP Voting May Help Luka Doncic
It’s worth noting that only five players in league history have won the NBA MVP four times – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James – and it has only happened once this century.
While ESPN’s insiders didn’t seem to show any voter fatigue regarding Jokic, the recent history of NBA MVP voting suggests it is a factor. Since winning back-to-back MVPs (2018–20), Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has never finished higher than third in NBA MVP voting in the last three seasons.
- Luka Doncic contract (Spotrac): $45.999 million cap hit (2025-26), $49.641 million cap hit (2026-27), $53.612 million cap hit (2027-28), $57.584 million player option in 2028
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry won MVP in consecutive seasons (2014–16) and has finished third just once and in the top five of NBA MVP voting twice over the last nine seasons. Given the historical gravity of a player winning MVP for a fourth time, the Nuggets might need to finish atop the Western Conference for Jokic to take home the award.
MVP voting results in 2022-23 and last season also show that awarding it to a first-time winner carries some added weight for voters. When Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid won it following the 2022–23 season, he finished with a Win Shares per 48 Minutes (.259) that was significantly lower than Jokic’s (.308). Often, WS/48 is a strong predictor of who will win MVP.
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As for Doncic, his production last season after being acquired by Los Angeles actually marked some of the worst numbers of his career. Doncic’s WS/48 (0.164) paled in comparison to his average from 2020–24 (0.191). He also shot worse from the field with Los Angeles (43.8%, 53% eFG) than he did in his last full four seasons with the Dallas Mavericks (48%, 55.5% eFG).
Given the offseason transformation he made, there’s reason to believe Doncic could avoid a slow start, and better conditioning should help him maintain an elite level of play throughout the season. If he can approach career-best numbers and Los Angeles finishes in the top four in the Western Conference, it’s not difficult to imagine voters deciding to award him NBA MVP for the first time with the Lakers.