The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-59) open a three-game set against the Pittsburgh Pirates (61-77) on Tuesday night at PNC Park, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Los Angeles hands the ball to franchise icon Clayton Kershaw, while the Pirates counter with right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski.
Veteran Ace vs. Emerging Arm
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Kershaw (9-2, 3.06 ERA) will make his 18th start of the season as he looks to secure double-digit wins for the 14th time in his storied career. At 37, the left-hander is no longer the overpowering force of his Cy Young prime, but his command and pitch mix remain elite. In fact, Kershaw has leaned heavily on breaking balls this season, throwing sliders or curveballs nearly 60% of the time — the highest rate in the league among qualified starters. That reliance has kept hitters off balance; opponents are batting just .247 against him.
His most recent outing came against the Cincinnati Reds, where he delivered five steady innings of one-run ball. While he’s averaging just over five innings per start this year, Kershaw has allowed one earned run or fewer in nearly half his appearances, showing he can still control games in shorter stints.
Across the diamond, Mlodzinski (3-7, 3.86 ERA) continues to develop into a rotation piece for Pittsburgh after beginning his career in relief. The 26-year-old has yet to record a quality start in 11 tries, often working short outings — he averages just over three innings per start. Still, his ability to avoid the long ball has been notable. Mlodzinski hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 32 innings, leaning on a fastball that plays well on the outer half of the plate.
Mlodzinski’s command remains a work in progress, with a below-average strike rate on his fastball. Yet when he gets ahead, his secondary pitches play. He struck out 74 batters against 23 walks in 84 innings this season, and 13 of his 27 appearances have ended without surrendering an earned run.
Keys to Victory: Dodgers
The Dodgers enter as heavy favorites, and for good reason. Against bottom-10 scoring offenses, Los Angeles is 37-16 (.698) this season. Jumping on Pittsburgh early could be decisive; the Dodgers are 38-11 when scoring in the first inning. Their lineup also thrives on patience, drawing walks in 10% of plate appearances versus right-handers, the best mark in baseball.
Extra-base hits are another bellwether. Los Angeles is 29-4 when collecting five or more XBH in a game, tied for fifth-best in MLB. With Mlodzinski averaging just three innings per start, the Dodgers may get an early look at Pittsburgh’s bullpen, making timely power all the more crucial.
Keys to Victory: Pirates
For Pittsburgh, keeping the ball in the park is paramount. The Pirates are just 3-30 when allowing two or more home runs this year, a troubling trend against a Dodgers lineup that ranks among the league leaders in slugging. Their pitchers have recently shown sharper command, walking just 6% of batters over the past two weeks — best in MLB. Maintaining that efficiency will be vital to avoiding crooked innings.
On the offensive side, the Pirates’ struggles are clear. They rank 30th in runs scored, slug just .332 on the road, and have hit a mere .125 in lefty-lefty matchups this year. Facing a future Hall of Famer in Kershaw, who has specialized in exploiting left-handed hitters throughout his career, Pittsburgh will need to string together disciplined at-bats to scratch across runs.
What to Watch
The contrast between Kershaw’s breaking-ball artistry and Mlodzinski’s developing fastball-first approach makes for an intriguing matchup. If the Pirates can chase Kershaw early and reach a Dodgers bullpen that has worked heavily of late, they’ll give themselves a chance. For Los Angeles, an early lead combined with Kershaw’s experience could put this game out of reach quickly.
Both teams are playing for different stakes — the Dodgers for playoff positioning, the Pirates for growth and evaluation. Still, Tuesday offers a classic September storyline: a legend still dealing at age 37 against a younger pitcher searching for consistency.
First pitch comes at 6:40 p.m. ET, with coverage on SportsNet PT and SportsNet LA.