The Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2025 NFL season with more hope — and more uncertainty — than they’ve had in years. After a dismal 4-13 finish last season, the franchise made a series of bold moves aimed at reshaping its identity. The biggest of all? Hiring Pete Carroll.
Carroll, who spent 14 seasons turning the Seattle Seahawks into perennial contenders, brings a culture of toughness, competitiveness, and accountability — qualities the Raiders have sorely lacked. Now paired with his former quarterback Geno Smith and newly minted GM John Spytek, the 72-year-old Carroll has taken on one of the NFL’s most daunting rebuilding challenges.
But as respected football analyst Aaron Schatz put it bluntly: “Look, the Bills and Ravens have had a horrible time trying to get past Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs over the past couple of seasons. You expect the Raiders to get past him in the regular season?”
The idea of the Raiders finishing first seems even less likely when we consider the Broncos and Chargers were both playoff teams a year ago. Los Angeles or Denver have a much better chance of leading the AFC West if Kansas City fell off due to injury or other reasons.
“However, the idea of Las Vegas as a playoff contender is not necessarily ridiculous, particularly thanks to the addition of veteran QB Geno Smith,” Schatz continues. “Although Las Vegas ranks at sixth here in overall division odds, it is fourth in playoff odds out of all eight. The idea of the Raiders finishing first seems even less likely when we consider the Broncos and Chargers were both playoff teams a year ago. Los Angeles or Denver have a much better chance of leading the AFC West if Kansas City fell off due to injury or other reasons.
However, the idea of Las Vegas as a playoff contender is not necessarily ridiculous, particularly thanks to the addition of veteran QB Geno Smith. Although Las Vegas ranks at sixth here in overall division odds, it is fourth in playoff odds out of all eight teams.”
That’s the conundrum. Even if Las Vegas takes a noticeable step forward, they’re still stuck in a division ruled by the Kansas City Chiefs — and flanked by two other playoff-caliber teams in Denver and Los Angeles.
Why There’s (Some) Reason to Believe In The Las Vegas Raiders
Despite their daunting division, the Raiders’ playoff hopes aren’t completely far-fetched. In fact, among eight projected last-place finishers across the league, the Raiders rank fourth in playoff probability. The optimism stems from a trio of foundational changes:
- A proven coach with a winning pedigree: Carroll had just three losing seasons in Seattle. His ability to galvanize rosters and build a sustainable culture is already being felt.
- A stable, savvy quarterback in Geno Smith: Carroll was a key figure in the decision to trade for Smith, a veteran familiar with his system who brings leadership, accuracy, and poise — all major upgrades over last year’s quarterback carousel.
- A strong offseason of acquisitions: From tight end Brock Bowers to key free-agent additions, the Raiders addressed major holes and injected the roster with talent.
The Pete Carroll Effect
Former NFL players like Will Blackmon and Mitch Morse both believe Carroll’s presence alone makes the Raiders more competitive.
“I don’t think they’re going to make a huge splash, but I think they’re going to be extremely competitive, knowing the type of culture Pete Carroll builds,” Blackmon said.
That culture is already shifting. Reports say Carroll has re-energized the locker room, installed a disciplined system, and empowered vocal leaders like Maxx Crosby. Smith, too, provides a stabilizing force under center — something the Raiders sorely missed last year.
But culture and leadership can only take you so far — especially in a division like this one.
The Schedule: A Minefield with Playoff Implications
While the Raiders’ revamped roster gives them a shot at .500 or better, their schedule tells a harsher truth: the path to a playoff berth is brutal.
- Toughest Stretch: Weeks 13–18
Five of their last six games come against playoff teams from last year, including three divisional matchups. If they’re still in the hunt by December, they’ll have to earn it the hard way. - Must-Win Games: vs. Patriots (Week 1), vs. Jaguars (Week 9)
Beating a vulnerable Patriots team early and avoiding a letdown against an inexperienced Jaguars squad midseason are non-negotiables if they want to be in the mix late. - Statement Game: vs. Bears (Week 4)
In a twist of irony, Chicago passed on Carroll and hired Ben Johnson — despite Tom Brady’s influence in Vegas’ front office. That one’s personal. - Biggest Obstacles: Broncos & Chiefs
The Broncos now boast arguably the NFL’s best defense, while the Chiefs remain the gold standard. The Raiders face them four times total — a brutal ask.
The Numbers and the Reality
In 2024, the Raiders were 31st in the league in scoring and 29th in total defense. This season’s roster is improved, but not without question marks: the offensive line, linebacking corps, and cornerback depth remain unproven.
Still, the combination of Geno Smith, Bowers, and Crosby gives them enough firepower — and Carroll gives them the edge they’ve lacked. If the Raiders were in the AFC South or NFC North, they’d be a trendy playoff pick. Instead, they’re fighting uphill in the NFL’s deepest division.
Final Prediction: Hopeful, but Realistic
- Predicted Record: 9-8
- Projected AFC West Finish: 4th
- Playoff Odds: Outside shot, wild card at best
The Raiders are headed in the right direction — finally. But in a division with Mahomes, the NFL’s top defense in Denver, and a reloaded Chargers team, the climb to contention will require patience, health, and maybe a little luck. The Chiefs have to have a real down year at some point. Right?!
Still, with Carroll’s culture in place and Smith’s steady hand at QB, the Raiders may have found the right combination to end their two-decade playoff drought.
Just don’t expect them to leapfrog the Chiefs. Not yet.