Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert started the year concerningly bad. Whether it was due to injury or play calling his first four games he failed to produce one performance over 200 yards passing and just one game with multiple touchdowns.
Over the last four games though, the offense (mostly) has started to click. This caused the Chargers running back JK Dobbins to demand that Herbert be added to the short list of elite quarterbacks in consideration for winning the NFL Most Valuable Player award.
Should Justin Herbert Be In The MVP Conversation?
Right now three quarterbacks have a legitimate shot at winning the award based on the Vegas oddsmakers; Josh Allen (+125), Lamar Jackson (+200), and Jared Goff (+800). Right now, Herbert is in sixth place, behind the aforementioned quarterbacks and Patrick Mahomes (+1200) and Jalen Hurts (+1700). Between Hurts and Herbert lies a massive gulf, with Herbert sitting at a distant +2500.
The discussion about who is more deserving among these quarterbacks breaks down quickly, as the front runners have played at a higher level and far more consistently than the rest, including Herbert.
Herbert Is Behind Bo Nix In Many Statistics
But there is even a quarterback who has outplayed Herbert statistically and has bargain basement-level MVP odds (+15000). Denver Broncos 2024 first rounder, Bo Nix is leading Herbert in nearly every statistic available. Nix has a better completion percentage, 65.5 to 63.5. More yards passing, 2275 to 2186. More touchdown passes, 14 to 13.
Nix also leads Herbert in some advanced metrics. Nix has a higher completion percentage over expected, .8 to .5 and they are tied in passing success rate, with 43.4.
Herbert has Nix beat in interceptions thrown, one to six, and in EPA per play, .110 and .024.
While Dobbins has a point in the truest sense of the words Most Valuable, in that Herbert may in fact be the player most valuable to his team, that is not how this award is decided. There are certainly flaws in the decision-making, but most metrics point to Herbert being well outside the conversation for NFL MVP for good reason. This year is out of the question, but next year…