Los Angeles Chargers: NFL Analytics Expert Predicts Jim Harbaugh’s Year-1 Win Total

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Expectations for the Los Angeles Chargers are all over the place, with some even going to far as a Super Bowl appearance. Phillip Rivers predicted a 10-win season and Shawne Merriman upped that to 12. Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model gives them a 57.7 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 3.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. The latest to offer their thoughts on how they will fare in 2024 is NFL Network Analytics Expert, Cynthia Frelund.

NFL Network Expert Predicts 8.2 Wins for the Los Angeles Chargers

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers-OTA
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsCredit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Frelund, using her own model, projects the Chargers winning 8.2 games in 2024. As she writes;

Despite an early bye (Week 5), the Chargers’ win share increased by 0.2 wins as a result of the 2024 NFL schedule. With a new coach, front office, offensive tackle, WR group, et al, Los Angeles will likely need some time to get everyone on the same page and build a strong rapport. The schedule does them some favors in this regard, as their hardest four-game sequence (Bengals, Ravens, at Falcons, at Chiefs) doesn’t hit until mid-November. In addition, their final three games — Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders — currently rank as the second-most favorable of any AFC team.

Frelund also predicts that the 2024 Chargers will miss the playoffs and finish 11th in wins in the AFC and in second place in the AFC West behind the Kansas City Chiefs, who top the conference and division with 10.9 wins.

Frelund’s expectation is the lowest prediction, though not by much. Others in the media have weighed in on the Chargers 2024 record, Geoff Schwartz of CBS Sports expects the they will win 9 games and New York Times beat writer, Daniel Popper thinks 10 wins.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers-OTA
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsCredit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports