In the NFL there are 8 teams that have either an indoor stadium or a stadium with a retractable roof. Those teams are as follows;
- Dallas Cowboys
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- Houston Texans
- Minnesota Vikings
- Detroit Lions
- Indianapolis Colts
- Arizona Cardinals
Football as a whole has traditionally been played outdoors in the elements but there may be a shift in that mentality on the horizon. With the rise in popularity of fantasy sports, and the league moving in the direction of more high scoring offenses, indoor stadiums seem like they would be preferred. Ask most NFL players and they’ll tell you it’s certainly easier to play indoors. There’s no wind to throw or kick into, and no sudden gusts to alter the flight path of the football. No snow or rain to worry about, and a controlled temperature environment? That certainly sounds like my preference as an offensive player.
This brings up a very important question, do offensive players actually perform better indoors? Certainly, the defense is indoors as well, so there shouldn’t be any real advantage for either side of the ball, right?
Let’s take a look!Last season the top 40 receivers averaged about 5% more total yards and catches when playing indoors. Touchdowns are much harder to predict, and can be attributed to a variety of factors, however more yards and catches certainly afford more opportunity to score. Julio Jones, for example, averaged 96.2 yards in 10 indoor games in 2017, while he only averaged 80.33 in his six outdoor games. This is a significant difference! However, when your home field advantage overlaps with playing indoors, it’s hard to say which is the bigger factor.
Below you’ll find a list of wide receivers with projections for the 2018 season. These receivers have been ranked by how many indoor games they will play in the 2018 season. The first grouping will play a majority of their games indoors and thus benefit the most from the 5% increase in their statistics.
[table id=69 /]
The second grouping plays less than half of their games indoors but still a relevant enough amount to see a small increase in their stats.
[table id=70 /]
Finally, the third group plays only one or two games indoors, however, they are still receivers that will be drafted in every single fantasy league.
[table id=71 /]
The first set of projections are for the entire 2018 season, and the second set are specifically for games played indoors. The formula for determining the games played indoors stats is quite simple should you wish to do some research on a player not listed here.
Games played indoors/16 X Total projection number + 5%
So for example, Michael Thomas was calculated as follows;
11 / 16 = 0.6875
.6875 X 100 = 68.75
68.75 X 0.05 = 3.44
68.75 + 3.44 = 72.19
[visualizer id=”13342″]
In this case, his projection has been rounded to 72 catches, as there is no such thing as half a catch or half a touchdown.
Below is my complete rankings with the indoor factor taken into account.
[table id=72 /]
As you can see, 3 of the top 4 receivers play the majority of their games indoors, with DeAndre Hopkins coming out as the number 1 fantasy wide receiver in 2018.
[visualizer id=”13340″]
Drafting players with heavy indoor schedules could, in fact, help you down the line when the weather becomes a factor later in the season, which just happens to be right when your fantasy playoffs start.Whether or not these numbers will change the way you draft your receivers is ultimately up to you to decide. However, if you get stuck between two players and can’t decide who to draft, consider the 5% edge if one of those guys plays more games indoors.