NFL 2021: Week 5 He’s HOT…. He’s NOT
It’s Week 5, and time to start watching the trends and gains/losses of players/teams.
HOT QUARTERBACK = JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS @ KC CHIEFS
It is no secret that Allen is HOT, although NFL.com has him ranked as their #11 QB, we know better this week.
Sure his accuracy has faltered from last season, but his nine passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown after four games make up for it.
This week he has a match-up with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are currently giving up an average of 291.8 passing yards a game, and they are also allowing the second-most fantasy quarterback points a game (26.73 on average).
Allen is averaging 39.5 pass plays per game with 33 red zone attempts. He has 24 rushing attempts, with 10 being red zone carries, and that’s an average of 2.5 red zone carries per game.
The game has an over/under 56.5.
DraftKings Prop Bets for Allen include: over 306.5 passing yards -115; over 2.5 passing touchdowns +140; and 342.5 over passing and rushing yards combined -115
NOT HOT = DAVIS MILLS, HOUSTON TEXANS v NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This will be short because if you count on Mills in your fantasy line-up, the situation is bad…really…really bad.
But here is all you need to know, this week, Mills will go up against a Bill Belichick defense that is notoriously brutal to rookie quarterbacks.
Mills, so far this season, has thrown four touchdowns and eight interceptions. Not hot.
HOT WIDE RECEIVER = LAVISKA SHENAULT JR., JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS v TENNESSEE TITANS
Anyway, back to Shenault, it was a rocky start for him. But last week, the potential began to shine through. He finished the game with seven targets, six receptions, and 99 yards. He also rushed one time for 11 yards.
This week the Jaguars play the porous Tennessee Titan defense. The Titans are giving up the second-most fantasy points on average to the wide receiver position, and that includes giving up 111 yards and a touchdown to the New York Jets Corey Davis last week.
Shenault should heat up some fantasy points this week.
NOT HOT WIDE RECEIVER = ODELL BECKHAM JR., CLEVELAND BROWNS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
This is less primarily about OBJ and more about the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a win against the then-unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders Monday night.
While the Chargers’ defense is poor against the run (allowing an average of 139.5 rushing yards per game), they are leaps and bounds better against the pass (allowing an average of 192.5 passing yards per game, fifth-ranked). That includes allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position (20.38).
Beckham has been back for two games. In the first, he was targeted nine times for five receptions and 77 yards. Last week he was targeted seven times for two receptions and 27 yards.
Cleveland runs the ball on 52.83% of their offensive plays, and that’s second in the league. It isn’t only that Beckham is not being productive, it is that he doesn’t have that much opportunity to be productive either.
HOT RUNNING BACK = CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, RB/WR, ATLANTA FALCONS v NEW YORK JETS
Patterson is currently the RB3 and WR5 in PPR formats. I mean, that’s hot. Patterson is only on the field for a 35.1% snap share and a 13.8% target share, yet he has 119 rushing yards, 235 receiving yards, eight red-zone touches, and five touchdowns through four games.
The Falcons will play the Jets, who give up the most fantasy points per game to the running back position (29.38). Ride him while he is hot.
NOT HOT RUNNING BACK = MILES SANDERS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES v CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers give up the third-fewest fantasy points to the running back position (11.45).
But this is more about Sanders being less productive on the field than rookie running back Kenneth Gainwell. Last week Sanders rushed seven times for 13 yards for an average of 1.9 yards per carry. He also saw three targets for three receptions and 34 yards.
Young Gainwell had three carries for 31 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 10.3 yards per carry while being on the receiving end of eight targets, six receptions for 58 yards.
Who is hot here?
HOT TIGHT END = MO ALIE-COX, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS v BALTIMORE RAVENS
Cox has been getting hot. He has gone from 2 targets to five targets in three weeks. He is on the field for 53.6% of the offensive snaps and has three red-zone targets.
Last week he was targeted five times for three receptions, 42 yards, and two touchdowns.
This week the Colts play the Ravens, who give up the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (16.93).
NOT HOT TIGHT END = GEORGE KITTLE, SAN FRANCISCO NINERS v ARIZONA CARDINALS
Is anyone or anything hotter than the Cardinals right now? Kittle isn’t. Is he hurt? Will he play regardless?
It doesn’t matter. The Cardinals are giving up the third-fewest points to the tight end position (3.95). A healthy Kittle is hot a wounded one against this defense…not so much.
Happy Week 5! Now get in those hot fantasy line-ups!