After a tough loss, and an abysmal offensive performance in Pittsburgh, the Rams sit at 5-4, and the season hangs in the balance. Is the season lost?
There seems to be a dark cloud over this team, and many think that they are on the brink of mediocrity and will be stuck in purgatory for years. However, this team is closer than many think. The defense is hitting peak form at the right time, but the offense is holding the team back. Much of this is due to an identity crisis.
We spoke on this topic on the latest Bleav In LA Football, but this is not the 2017 Rams. This is not the 2018 Rams. This is the 2019 Rams, and the offense must find its identity.
What Is The Rams Offensive Identity
Against the Steelers on Sunday, the Rams offense looked very reminiscent of the 2018 offense that was completely dominated by the Chicago Bears (who LA ironically plays this coming Sunday Night). What’s even crazier, is the stats are eerily similar.
2018 vs Bears – 20/44, 180 yards, and 4 interceptions
2019 vs Steelers – 22/41, 243 yards, and 2 interceptions
2018 vs Bears – 11 carries for 28 yards and no touchdowns
2019 vs Steelers – 12 carries for 73 yards and no touchdowns (did not play the entire 4th quarter).
2018 vs Bears – 7 receptions for 61 yards
2019 vs Steelers – 7 receptions for 95 yards
Hell, even punter Johnny Hekker had a pass attempt in both games.
Statistics only tell half the story, but I wanted to mention them because it paints a small picture of what this offense is. An offense that has not evolved whatsoever from what it was. An offense that runs the same schemes, the same plays, and has the same offensive production against good defenses with good defensive coordinators and coaches. So as of right now, this offense has an identity that needs to be evolved.
The number one unit to receive the brunt of the blame is the offensive line, and rightfully so. They have not been good individually or as a unit. But the problem is greater than that in my opinion.
According to Next Gen Stats, QB Jared Goff ranks 15th in time to throw at 2.79. According to PFF, Goff’s is tied for the 13th longest at 2.61. This statistic measures the average time it takes the quarterback to release the ball from the time it is snapped. Now the actual number from first to last is within decimal points, but it should be noted that Goff ranks right among the middle. So while it is popular to blame the offensive line for the offensive woes, based on time to throw, they are not the worst.
Now let’s look at the running game.
Todd Gurley’s knee issue has been well documented. His usage has and will continue to be questioned, especially given the fact that he did not touch the ball at all in the fourth quarter against the Steelers. Why is this?
The play-action is something that fans will always revert back to. It is the opinion of many that the success of the Rams offense of the past stems from an established running game, thus leading to a lethal play-action. This definitely has merit, but that just means teams are now stacking the box to stop the run, thus rendering the play-action useless, right?
According to Next Gen Stats, Todd Gurley ranks 27th in the NFL in facing 8+ man boxes. He faces an 8+ man box only 17.31% of the time. This is less than Derrick Henry, Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, and Dalvin Cook, all of whom play for run-heavy teams. The Rams are clearly not a run-heavy team, but why aren’t they?
They have Todd Gurley, one of the best running backs in the league, who has a guaranteed salary of $45,000,000. They have Malcolm Brown, who they made sure stuck around and gave him $2.1 million guaranteed to be a backup. And they drafted Darrell Henderson in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft, whom they took before David Montgomery and Devin Singletary.
So what is this team’s identity?
The answer is, it doesn’t have one. They want to pretend to feature an elite running back in Todd Gurley, but they don’t. They want to showcase their young, highly paid quarterback by throwing the ball, but they aren’t setting him up for success. And while the offensive line certainly is not what it was last year, they want to say they believe in the guys that they have, and yet they are running the offense like they have the guys from last year.
It’s time to change and adapt.In every walk of life, whether it be at home or at work, you have to have the ability to adapt and change for the given circumstances. You can have a plan and attempt to stick to that plan, but life will always throw you curveballs and force you to adapt your plan. Football is no different.
The Rams came into this season with a plan in place. They knew that their offensive line was older at one position (LT) and younger with less experience at three positions. They knew that Todd Gurley would need to be managed better and may not be the back that they were used to leaning on for 20-25 touches a game. They also knew that they were getting Cooper Kupp back after missing the end of last year due to injury.
So knowing all of these things, the Rams went about their business and implemented a game plan similar to the offenses that came before them in 2017 and 2018. Well, their plan has gone off of the rails and it is time to adapt.
Whether or not Todd Gurley’s knee is a serious issue, he has looked explosive when he has touched the ball. He has yet to run for over 100 yards in a game, which is absolutely shocking, has not hit 20 touches in a single game, and has only mustered more than three receptions once. I understand the want to manage his playing time and preserving him for the playoffs, but you have to make the playoffs in order for this to be worth it. And what is even more strange is how and when they are managing those possessions.
Sean McVay has said that they have implemented a rotation between the three backs and he trusts the coaches on his staff to put the correct backs in at the correct time. Apparently, this “rotation” did not include Todd Gurley for a single play of the 4th quarter last Sunday. It seems more to me like they have settled in on a snap count and touch count and when Gurley hits this number they do not want to budge over it. This sweet spot seems to fall around the 12-15 touches mark.
So if this is the plan and the hard set rule by the coaching staff and organization, wouldn’t it make sense to make sure that these touches were utilized at the most critical time of a game, say the 4th quarter when you are down by five points? And wouldn’t you want these touches to be the absolute best play calls to give your best player the best chance to break open the game?
So there is one extremely easy way to improve the offense just a bit. If you are going to stick with the preseason plan of giving Gurley a snap count each week, then make sure that those are the most meaningful snaps and situations in the football game, not a handoff on 2nd and 12 in the first quarter.
Now let’s address the overall running game. The Rams re-signed Malcolm Brown and drafted Darrell Henderson for a reason. Maybe not to replace Gurley, but to be a formidable pair to spell him when needed, which from what we have seen through nine games, is usually more than half the contest. So if you invested in these young backs as a complement to Gurley, then that is what they need to be.
Throughout the season, I have seen an effort to get these two backs involved and have a true three-headed monster, but I haven’t seen it consistently. As soon as the offense begins to struggle, it’s like everything gets thrown out and it becomes a Jared Goff five-step drop party. This is also where the idea of an “even rotation” is concerning. It should be a “situational rotation.”
At 5’11 222, Malcolm Brown is a big, bruising back that can run between the tackles. He should be the guy utilized for 3rd and short, goal line, and if you are just trying to wear down the defense.
Henderson is amazing in space and was the back in the draft with the best big-play ability. He is a slasher type runner that should be used to spread out the defense. So why is he given four handoffs and sent straight up the gut? This is the complement piece to use for screen plays, stretch or zone runs, and any trick plays McVay wants to roll out. Not the ground and pound.
So many coaches in today’s NFL get way too caught up on smoke and mirrors. Like lining up a specific player to make the defense think you are running one type of play and then run the opposite. When in reality, you draft guys with a specific skill-set for reason, so it makes much more sense, and will probably be more efficient to use said players for those specific skill-sets.
So step two for improving the offense, is utilizing the stable of running backs situationally, not just on a blind rotation.
Now let’s look at the darkest cloud hanging over this offense. The offensive line. The Rams have seven games left and this is the group that will be suiting up in each of those games. Can’t change it. So it’s time to adapt the play-calling and give the line a better chance to be successful.
Through nine games, the line has not looked good in run blocking but has looked even worse in pass-pro. This section will kind of go hand and hand with Jared Goff on how to improve.
Let’s go back to Goff’s average time to throw. If you need a refresher, he ranks 15th, or right in the middle of the pack, at 2.79 seconds, according to Next Gen Stats. Quarterbacks ahead of Goff, or ones that release it quicker from the time it’s snapped, include Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, among others.
So what does this data tell us? Essentially two things. Either Goff is taking too long to process and make his decision on where to throw, or the route concepts and play design are taking too long to develop. These 2.79 seconds was fine last year when the offensive line was playing like one of the best units in football, but now that they are not at the same level you cannot expect to call the same plays that take the same amount of time to develop when your quarterback is not going to have the same amount of time to process and make a decision.
Another point of data that plays into this theory is Goff’s average completed air yards. Currently, Goff ranks 26th highest according to Next Gen Stats at 6.3. Whether you look at this as above or below, QBs such as Aaron Rodgers sit at 5.8, Tom Brady sits at 5.6, Drew Brees sits at 5.1, and Derek Carr sits at 5.
So this tells us that Jared Goff is trying to push the ball further down the field even though his line is not providing him with enough time to accomplish this consistently.
If you take a look at the New England offense, it is not some novel concept. Just watch a few highlights. Brady never has the ball in his hand for more than two seconds. On the final step of his drop, the ball is out. And if it isn’t, the play usually results in a sack, incompletion, or hilarity of Brady throwing the ball in the dirt and pointing at someone 15 yards aways trying to get out of intentional grounding (which he usually does).
All of this data and this author blabbing on brings us to one very simple thing. In order to take the pressure off of the offensive line, and thus off of your quarterback, it would be beneficial to design some quicker plays and shorter route concepts.
Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks are some of the best receivers in the game with the ball in their hands and YAC. But they need the ball in their hands. Bubble screens, reverse plays, short crossers, tight end digs or fly routes with slot receiver out routes, are all play designs that can shorten the time the line needs to block and the QB has to hold on to the football. Do this enough through three quarters and then you design a big play deep ball that will catch the safety sleeping who has been cheating up on the 4, 5, and 6 yard passes all game.
Football is a game of inches and you get three downs to move the sticks. 3.5 yards per play are enough to do this.
So what is the Rams 2019 offensive identity? Well, it should be a unit that uses Gurley at the most opportune moments, uses Brown and Henderson situationally, and runs shorter quicker plays to get the ball out of Goff’s hand quickly and take the pressure off of the line.
It’s simple really. Just ask the Patriots.