Last week was a really tough week to pick several good lines for a plethora of reasons but the good news is this week is much easier. Now, I like picking out the teams that will likely beat the spreads rather than cover them but a majority of the lines this week are safe to take the favorites in. So while I will point out two teams that I’m confident will beat the spread, if you are one to play it safe then there are a multitude of games that you will probably be safe making. Like I said, though, there are a few teams that are strong bets to beat the spread so let’s take a look at some of the betting lines I’m most confident in this week:
New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Green Bay Packers, O/U 47.5
I know it may seem that the inexperienced Brett Hundley making his first start of the season at quarterback for the Packers against the lowly Saints defense is a lucky break for him. The thing is the Saints defense hasn’t been so lowly lately.
Over the past three games, the Saints have seven interceptions and 13 sacks. That includes two games in which they shut out the Dolphins and held the Panthers to just a field goal. So a healthy defense against a quarterback who struggled against the Vikings once he came in last weekend is a recipe for a big win.
On the offensive side, New Orleans looks like they’ve finally got their running game right after trading Adrian Peterson and while Drew Brees isn’t throwing for a ton of yards (he is 15th in the league), he’s not turning the ball over as he has just two picks on the season. The Packers defense has been underperforming all season but Aaron Rodgers was helping hide that fact.
Essentially, the Packers offense was the one thing keeping the team afloat and while Hundley isn’t the worst backup in the league, I don’t think he can keep the offense going. It’s a big ask to expect a backup quarterback to keep up with a famously good offense especially when the Saints defense is playing well too. I think the Saints are your best bet to cover the spread this week but I think the Packers will be able to score some touchdowns so I would take the over as well.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3), O/U 38
I think if the Jets were home, this game would be a push. The Dolphins are undoubtedly more talented than the Jets but New York has also proven that they’re not the joke they were made out to be all summer.
I know this seems like a ridiculous take that the Jets could knock off the Dolphins who are coming off the biggest upset of the season so far in their win against the Falcons. Although I think that had more to do with Atlanta’s struggles on offense than Miami’s effort on defense.
Sure, Atlanta had a better record than Miami but they escaped several close games in the season above so don’t let their record fool you into thinking they’re better than they are.
The Dolphins offensive struggles continue to hang their heads and to be fair, the Jets have similar struggles. The key difference is the Jets defense has proven themselves good enough to keep them in the game as long as New York can score at least a few touchdowns.
The only time this season the Jets have allowed more than three touchdowns is against the Raiders who, despite their current struggles, have one of the league’s best offenses. When they played the Dolphins in the second week of the season, the Jets held them to just six points.
So I know it may seem that the Dolphins have finally found their stride, I think the Jets are good enough to pull off this upset. I do think both offenses will continue to struggle so taking the under here is definitely a good bet.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (PUSH), O/U 40.5
I know it’s not sexy to bet on a push but frankly, all the other lines were too risky to put out there. The Baltimore-Minnesota game was tempting but the Ravens are far too inconsistent to truly rely on with that line.
So I went looking for the next best line and while it is understandable that Denver is a push against the Chargers with three of their receivers likely to miss the game. However, Denver’s defense is still strong this season and I don’t think they’ll have any problems with the Chargers offense.
I think if Trevor Siemian can lead the offense to at least three touchdowns, the Broncos will have this win. Los Angeles struggled against an inconsistent Raiders defense last week scoring just two touchdowns and Philip Rivers age is clearly catching up with him.
So it’s understandable to be wary of the battered Broncos but the Chargers have been hugely inconsistent this year so I think Denver is a safe bet to win this one. However, I don’t think this will turn into a shootout given the Broncos’ defense is still pretty healthy so taking the under is your safest bet here too.