A Tad Over/A Tad Under: Week 6 NFL Betting Lines
Let me start off by saying this is a tough week to bet on games. The lines are either massively favoring good teams over bad teams so they’re questionable because winning by double digits against anyone is hard in the NFL and frankly, teams like the 49ers and Jaguars are constantly reminding us there is no sure thing in this league. With that said, I have found three games that I feel confident on so let’s take a look at the safest wagers this weekend:
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (-4), O/U 50
If you didn’t notice from my picks last week, I usually find the safest bets are taking advantage of lines that put a little too much faith in teams simply because they are home. This is one of those cases.
The Lions sit at a record of 3-2 but it very well could’ve been 5-0 and definitely should be 4-1. They lost narrowly against the Falcons due to the 10-second runoff rule after reviewing a near-game-winning touchdown with eight seconds left. Then they mounted an impressive comeback against the Panthers.
The Saints on the other hand really only have one good win against the Panthers on the road but otherwise have played inconsistently. Maybe getting rid of Adrian Peterson will help the team get its mind right but I don’t think he was that much of a locker room concern.
It’s also worth noting that the Lions are 2-0 on the road so far this season so I don’t think a home field advantage really gives the Saints that much of an edge.
Defensively, this is hard to gauge what kind of game it will be. Detroit ranks 18th in yards per game allowed and New Orleans dead last but then both teams also rank in the top ten in points per game. So they both have a bend but don’t break mentality clearly but both quarterbacks are playing incredibly well so it will be hard to keep that way of play going.
Ultimately, I think the Lions will beat this spread with either a close loss or a win and it’s safer than not to take the under on this one.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins (-11), O/U 46
This is one of those games I was speaking about earlier when I said the NFL is so good that not even the bad teams are that bad. I know San Francisco has an 0-5 record and Washington just blew out the Raiders two weeks ago but I implore you to avoid the temptation to let you think this is an automatic win for the Redskins.
After their first loss against the Panthers to start the season, the 49ers have not lost a game by more than three points and that includes teams like the Seahawks and Rams who would have a much smaller spread if they were facing Washington.
It’s an oddity given San Francisco ranks in the bottom half of the league in virtually every major category on both sides of the ball yet they still manage to stay in these games.
Meanwhile, the Redskins are still missing Josh Norman while Trent Williams and Robert Kelley are both questionable heading into the weekend.
I don’t think the 49ers will win this game but I just have a hard time thinking Washington will win by more than 10 against a team that is somehow always in it. So I think the 49ers will beat the spread and definitely take the under on this one.
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings, O/U 45
News broke today that makes me extremely confident in this pick. The Vikings number one receiver Stefon Diggs and quarterback Sam Bradford are both out against the Packers on Sunday.
While Case Keenum actually jump-started the Minnesota offense on Monday night, it’s important to keep in mind how important team game plans are for a single quarterback and how difficult it is to adjust to that when another one with a different skillset comes in. Also, it was the Bears.
So the Packers were preparing for Keenum as Bradford had been questionable all week and the backup quarterback doesn’t even have his number one target. So the Vikings offense is likely going to kept largely in check throughout the game as Green Bay ranks 11th in yards per game allowed.
Meanwhile, the Vikings defense ranks in the top ten in yards and points per game, if you look at how they do against the pass it’s a completely different story. The Vikings are ranked 20th in passing yards allowed per game and that’s not what you want when you’re going up against Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers look like they’re going to be one of the top contenders for the Lombardi once again this year and it’s hard to believe the Vikings with a hobbled offense led by a backup quarterback will make it close.
The Packers will likely win this by a touchdown or more to cover the spread. I would be shocked if the Packers don’t finish their scoring somewhere in the 30-35 point range so giving the Vikings offense a little credit, probably a smart move to take the over here.