It is Week 9 in the NFL and the 2-5 Chargers should be oh so much better. After losing yet another game where they had a double-digit lead, they will now face the Las Vegas Raiders at home.
BETTING ODDS
The over/under for the game is 52. The Chargers are a one-point favorite. The line for the game has remained consistent opening at Chargers -1. The spread however has decreased. It began at 53.5 and is now currently 52.
INJURIES
CHRIS HARRIS JR., CORNERBACK, IR, FOOT INJURY
TRAI TURNER, GUARD, GROIN, QUESTIONABLE
JOEY BOSA, DEFENSIVE END, CONCUSSION, QUESTIONABLE
ISAAC ROCHELL, DEFENSIVE END, NECK, QUESTIONABLE
TROYMAINE POPE, RUNNING BACK, CONCUSSION PROTOCOL
FANTASY RELEVANT STATS
The Raiders’ defense is allowing 32.8 points per game. They have allowed opposing quarterbacks to have an average QBR of 99.7. The defense has only recorded nine sacks in six games.
The Raiders are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (25.14) and the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (23.02).
START/SIT
QUARTERBACK, JUSTIN HERBERT: This is of course a gimme, you are starting Justin Herbert. Whatever the reasons for the Chargers collapsing it is not on Herbert.
Herbert has attempted 227 passes in six games. He has a 67.4% completion percentage and a 104.5 passer rating. His 15 touchdowns to five interceptions is good football for a veteran much less a rookie thrown into a starting role.
From a clean pocket, he is 82% accurate, has 8.0 yards per attempt, and has seven touchdowns to one interception. When he is under pressure, he is 70.7% accurate (12th in the league) and a rating of 100.9 (third in the NFL).
And just to raise his fantasy floor, he has 28 rushing attempts, averaging 5.07 yards per attempt with two rushing touchdowns.
WIDE RECEIVER, MIKE WILLIAMS: Williams is widely inconsistent and in a game that looks to funnel through running backs (especially those with upside receiving) Williams is a sit.
Last week Williams had eight targets for five receptions, 99 yards, and a touchdown. The prior week he had three targets for one reception, four yards, and a touchdown. In week five against the New Orleans Saints, he had eight targets, five receptions, 109 yards, and two touchdowns. You see where this is going.
Williams is your quintessential boom or bust candidate. In week five when he excelled, Keenan Allen was on the field for 17% of the offensive snaps compared to 77% for Williams. In week seven where he had three targets, Allen was on the field for 85% of the offensive snaps and Williams 75%. And last week where he once again balled out, Allen was on the field for 98% of the offensive snaps and Williams 87%.
You feeling lucky?
WIDE RECEIVER, KEENAN ALLEN: Allen is receiving 30.9% of the target share (second in the NFL). He is the eighth-ranked receiver in points per game with Herbert under center and while he has 53 receptions he has zero drops. He is a must-start, even though the Raiders have held wide receivers to the 13th fewest points per game.
As long as Herbert is under center, or any quarterback for that matter, Allen is a must-start.
TIGHT END, HUNTER HENRY: In his last four games, Henry has not had more than four receptions. His 39 yards is the most in that span and that includes games against the New Orleans Saints (30th against the tight end position) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (29th against the tight end position).
I will continue saying it, Henry is too good not to have a breakout game. But right now he has only one touchdown on the season and 29 receptions on 46 targets.
You know as soon as you sit him that is the game he is going to break out, but can you afford to roster him on your fantasy team?
RUNNING BACK, JOSHUA KELLEY: With the Raiders being so generous to the running back position, what are you going to do? Last week Justin Jackson was fully healthy and Troymaine Pope was in the lineup. Jackson led the backs with 41 snaps, Pope was on the field for 25 snaps and Kelley had 21 snaps.
In a tight game, Kelley was third in snaps, carries, and yards. Pope has to clear concussion protocol but right now this is Jackson’s backfield.
RUNNING BACK, JUSTIN JACKSON: Last week Jackson averaged 5.2 yards per carry and was targeted five times, for 53 yards. He led the other two running backs in carries (17) and rushing yards (89).
Although the Raiders held Kareem Hunt in what should have been an absolute fantasy win, Hunt amassed only 66 yards on 14 carries, it could have been about the weather as the final score was a paltry 16-6.
Jackson, for the time being, appears to be the running back the Chargers are going with for the majority of snaps. Against what has been a porous Raiders run defense that should go for you too.
Good Luck! Here is to holding down those double-digit leads the team gets!