This year the wide receiver pool for fantasy football is deep. But there are always those that float above the fray. These two, Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, are no exceptions.
Who do you got?
ADP 2021
Per fantasyfootballcalculator.com
Allen’s current ADP is 3.02. He is the second pick of the third round and the 26th overall selection.
Woods’s current ADP is 4.07. He is the seventh pick in the fourth round and the 43rd overall selection.
By current ADP standards, Allen is one round better than Woods.
Is that valid?
QUARTERBACKS
The wide receiver position is indeed dependent on the quarterback. So let’s look at their quarterbacks.
JUSTIN HERBERT, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert had a stand-out season in his rookie campaign for 2020. He had 595 passing attempts (4th in the league), 80 red zone attempts( 9th in the league), and 65 deep passes (8th in the league).
Herbert averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. He finished with a 76.3% completion percentage and 46.8% completion percentage when pressured.
MATTHEW STAFFORD, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford’s 2020 stats are, of course, with the Detroit Lions.
Stafford had 528 passing attempts (12th in the league), 71 red zone attempts (14th in the league), and 61 deep passes (12th in the league).
Per Pro Football Focus in 2020, Stafford had the fourth-highest average depth of passing target with 9.4 yards. (Jared Goff was QB36 with 4.9 yards.)
He averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, finishing 2020 with a 64.2% completion percentage. What may be most important is Stafford’s, 66.9% completion rate on play-action. Because, as reported by Eric D. Williams, Sean McVay’s offenses have utilized play-action passes a league-high 32% of the time.
QUARTERBACK ROUND-UP
Neither player will be hurt by their quarterback play. The Rams have an upgrade at the quarterback position. They also have the 10th hardest strength of schedule.
The Chargers will be playing with a second-year quarterback who broke most rookie passing records his first year. This will be the first time quarterback, and wide receiver have a full preseason to get reacquainted. The Chargers will also play the 17th most difficult schedule.
COMPETITION
In 2020, Allen commanded an 85% snap share with 147 targets. He had 11 deep targets and 17 red-zone targets. Allen’s closest competition is Mike Williams. Williams had a 78.2% snap share with 85 targets.
Allen is clearly the WR1 in the Chargers offense.
Woods saw a 90.6% snap share with 130 targets in 2020. Of those targets, 14 were deep targets, and 11 were red-zone targets. Woods’ closest competition will be Cooper Kupp. Cupp had an 80.7% snap share and 125 targets in 2020. But only nine of Cupp’s targets were deep targets while 13 were red-zone.
There appears to be more of a balance between WR1 and WR1a in McVay’s offense. However, Stafford’s 42.6% deep ball completion percentage favors Woods.
Since 2017, Woods has had the third-most receiving yards on play-action passes, another bonus on a team that relies heavily on play-action.
STATISTICS
WOODS
- Finished as WR13 in 2020
- Last three seasons has missed only one game
- Averages 7.3 yards per target and 10.4 yards per reception in 2020
- 2018 = 130 targets, 86 receptions, 1,219 yards
- 2019 = 139 targets, 90 receptions, 1,134 yards
- 2020 = 129 targets, 90 receptions 936 yards
ALLEN
- Finished as WR 12 in 2020
- The last three seasons has missed two games
- Averages 6.7 yards per target and 9.9 yards per reception in 2020
- 2018 = 136 targets, 97 receptions, 1,196 yards
- 2019 = 149 targets, 104 receptions, 1,199 yards
- 2020 = 147 targets, 100 receptions, 992 yards
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CONCLUSION
Per ADP, the better ‘value’ is Woods, although he will not have the touchdown ceiling thanks to Kupp.
Allen, if he can stay healthy the whole season, has top-five WR potential. IF…