Beating The Spread: Best NFL Week 7 Bets

Mandalay Bay Sports Book. Photo Credit: The LAFB Network
Mandalay Bay Sports Book. Photo Credit: The LAFB Network

­­­NFL Week 7 is upon us after a Thursday night game that can best be described as sloppy. Luckily, there are plenty of good matchups this Sunday for fans to enjoy. Not just for their play on the field but also the money-making opportunities as well. So without further ado, let’s take a look at some of the best places to put your money this Sunday. All odds are via, check out their website for some of the best deals, and odds in online sports gambling.

Best Spreads

Carolina Panthers (+8.5) @ New Orleans Saints, -135

The Panthers have been one of the season’s biggest surprises so far which is bad news for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints who are battling it out for one of the bigger disappointments of the season. The Saints’ struggles this year are largely unexplained past an underperforming defense and that is likely to continue given the state of their receiving corps. Michael Thomas has already been ruled out and Emmanuel Sanders was placed on the Reserve/Covid-19 list and will likely miss the game. What this is all leading to is, if not a Panthers win, then at least a closer game than what the spread suggests. Expect Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers to either win this or make it a one-score game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @ Denver Broncos, -110

The Chiefs have looked beatable against almost every team they’ve played this season but in the end, they are still one of the best teams in the NFL. I understand why this line is where it’s at given the fact that their previous game was a surprise upset at the hands of the Raiders and it’s a road game but it’s important to remember the context. Patrick Mahomes is 5-0 against the Broncos in his career and both the games against their divisional opponent last year were decided by 20 points or more in the Chiefs’ favor. You may argue that now the Broncos have both Drew Lock and Noah Fant returning from injuries, they’ll be a new team and that may be true but the Broncos still have room for improvement before they can compete with a team on the same level as Kansas City.

Green Pay Packers (-3.5) @ Houston Texans, -107

The shock of last week came in the Buccaneers and Packers game where an underperforming Tampa Bay team absolutely blew the Packers out. Before last weekend, it looked like the Packers were borderline unbeatable and, understandably, that belief is no longer flawless but fans have to be careful of swinging the pendulum the other way. While Green Bay is certainly beatable, as long as Aaron Rodgers performs well, they are seen as Super Bowl favorites and deservedly so. I expect the Packers to come into Houston and beat a struggling squad by at least a touchdown.

Best Money Lines

San Francisco 49ers (+125) @ New England Patriots

If you’ve read any article of this series over the past few years, you know that I’m a big fan of finding the one game a week where there is a totally unnecessary home advantage. Well, this is easily the best pick for that this week. I understand the 49ers have been underperforming this year due to all of the injuries on both sides of the ball but they proved last week that they can still compete with some of the top competition in the NFL. Meanwhile, Cam Newton is cooling off after a hot start to the season and the Patriots are very beatable. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t cost them the game by turning the ball over, San Francisco should win this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+105) @ Tennessee Titans

Do I think the Steelers are a lock to win this game? Absolutely not. That being said, they do have a pretty good shot at doing so. Tennessee has looked better than I thought they would but their best win of the season came against the Bills when they essentially had two weeks to prepare. This will be the Titans toughest test of the season so far and with the Steelers showing their strengths on both sides of the ball, they could pull off this “upset”.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers (-360)

There are multiple candidates for Rookie of the Year but Justin Herbert is probably the leading candidate at this point and for good reason. Herbert has elevated a middling team to being competitive in every game they play even against more talented teams like the Buccaneers and Saints. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are on the opposite end of the spectrum. After a surprising win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, Gardner Minshew and the Jags have looked like a struggling middle-tier team that will likely lose to L.A.

Best Props

Josh Allen 3+ passing touchdowns at +169

Josh Allen has undoubtedly struggled against the Bills’ past two high-octane offenses, but he excels against lesser teams. It’s hard to find a lesser team than the Jets. I would absolutely gamble on the Bills to blow out the Jets and largely thanks to a big performance by Allen through the air.

David Johnson 1+ touchdown at -111

While the Packers defense has looked better than the previous years, they are still no Steelers. Green Bay has yet to hold an opponent to less than 15 points and David Johnson, while underwhelming, is still one of the focal points of the Texans’ offense. While I still expect the Packers to win this game, David Johnson should still be able to score at least one touchdown in this matchup.

Kenny Golladay 1+ touchdown at +100

The Falcons finally won their first game of the season when they absolutely dominated the Vikings but don’t let that fool you into thinking they are on the rebound. The Falcons will finish in the bottom 10 this year and for good reason. While the offense is loaded with talent, their defense has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. Meanwhile, Golladay has yet to see less than six targets and with a weak Atlanta secondary, that’s a prime opportunity for Golladay to score at least one touchdown.