And then there were four. The 2019 NFL season is finally coming to a close as the final four teams square off in the NFC and AFC championship games this Sunday. All season LAFB Network has been bringing you the best parlay bets but with just two games this weekend, rather than bringing you the best parlays, we will be looking at the best bets overall.
Whether it’s the spread, prop bets or otherwise, these are the best places to put your money this weekend to make sure you get more back. So without further ado, let’s take a look at the AFC Championship between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans.
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1st Quarter: Over 10 points (-110)
It’s a tale of two different teams here as the Titans have been kept afloat in the postseason mostly by their defense and their running game while the Chiefs are almost entirely dependent on Patrick Mahomes and their passing game. While the Titans defense has held both Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson to just one combined touchdown so far in the playoffs, it isn’t unreasonable to assume Mahomes is the one that finally breaks that streak. This paired with the fact that the Titans have scored a touchdown in the first quarter of both of their postseason games so far, points to this being a very safe bet for more than 10 points being scored in total in the first quarter.
Total Points: 51-60 (+200)
This is essentially the more fun version of over/under and by more fun, I obviously mean more profitable. The Titans have scored at least three touchdowns since the playoffs began and the Chiefs offense was clearly in a groove against the Texans after a slow start. Tennessee’s defense has been playing better than the Texans as of late, holding all of their opponents to 21 points or fewer in six of their last eight games. So while I still expect the Chiefs to win this game, I don’t see them putting up 50+ points again like they did last week.
The Titans offense has been running (pun intended) almost exclusively through Derrick Henry. How it’s possible that a person that size can also run at the speeds he can is beyond me but that’s beside the point.
The Chiefs run defense ranked 26th this year in rushing yards allowed per game and the Texans game was too much of an up-and-down affair to consider it a viable sign that it has improved at playoff time. When these two teams faced off in Week 10, Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City. The total amount of points scored in that game? 67 in a tight 35-32 matchup. While there is no rain or snow forecasted for this weekend in Missouri, expect that bitter Midwestern cold that is expected to somewhat stall the offenses to knock them down in the 50-60 point combined range.
Titans Total Touchdowns: Over 2.5 (+110)
As stated before, the Titans offense in the past two weeks has been relying almost solely on Derrick Henry. He has a combined 377 rushing yards while Ryan Tannehill has a whopping 160 yards total passing. Even with that underwhelming stat line though, Tannehill threw for two touchdowns against the Ravens and one against the Patriots.
The Chiefs defense is on opposite ends of the spectrum ranking 26th in run defense but 8th in pass defense. While it will be tough for the Titans to score more than three touchdowns, it’s hard to imagine they score less than that either.