2019 NFL Draft Betting Guide

Ryan Dyrud
Week 8 NFL Betting Lines
The Sports Book At Mandalay Bay In Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo Credit: Prayitno On Flickr – Under Creative Commons License

The 2019 NFL Draft is just around the corner and betting odds have just been released for it. With prospects like Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, and Quinnen Williams being projected anywhere from the first overall pick to the seventh, this is one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory. That is why Sports Al Dente is bringing you the 2019 NFL Draft Betting Guide: your best bets for this weekend for which players go where, which teams do what and more. Check it out below:

(All bets per Bovada odds)

Bets To Go For

Who Will Be Drafted #3 Overall? Josh Allen, +150

The first two picks in this year’s draft are totally up in the air even in the few days leading up to the draft (more on that later). So that leaves the third pick for the earliest and safest bet. Per several reports, the Jets would like to trade out of this pick which a few days ago I would’ve said is entirely possible.

Multiple reports have come out recently that the Cardinals are going to pass up on Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick so that means Nick Bosa or Quinnen Williams is likely to go there.

If Murray doesn’t go first, the 49ers will get bombarded with calls to trade up to their spot at number two likely from the Giants, Redskins, Raiders and possibly more. San Francisco only has 6 picks in this year’s draft so they will more than likely trade down from #2 at the first opportunity. So Murray will likely go with the second pick leaving the Jets stuck with the third without many opportunities to trade down. Josh Allen is a virtual lock to go #3 if he is available there and the Jets can’t trade down despite recent reports that they’re interested in Ed Oliver. This is your safest bet early on in the draft. (Bonus bet: Josh Allen, under 3.5 pick, +215)

How Many Tight Ends Drafted in the 1st Round? Over 2.5, +315

Out of all the positions to have increased value not just in the draft but the game, tight end is arguably the one that has done so the most. With Rob Gronkowski’s retirement, the Patriots are added onto a list of teams that have a need at tight end that includes the Raiders, Packers, Bengals, and Broncos. That long of a list with that valuable of a position means that it is more than likely that 3 are drafted in the first round. The pair of Iowa tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are definitely going in the first round but the wild card is Alabama’s Irv Smith. Fant and Hockenson could go anywhere after the fifth overall pick so if they’re both gone in the 20’s by the time the Raiders and Patriots are on the clock, it is entirely possible that Irv Smith is selected as the third tight end to go in the first.

How Many Offensive Players Drafted In 1st Round? Under 15.5, -260

If you’ve ever read any of my previous betting articles, 1. You’re welcome for the money you’ve made and 2. You know I always take one favorite just in case. This is the easy favorite that will definitely earn you some winnings. Every draft class has an overall headline and this year it is most definitely “Defense Heavy, Offense Not So Much”. It is entirely possible the only offensive player picked in the top 10 is Murray with the rest being entirely defensive players. The wild card with this bet is how many offensive linemen are drafted but even then it is entirely possible the total number stays below 15. Overall, it is likely there will be 3 quarterbacks and tight ends, maybe 2 wide receivers and some linemen but it is hard to imagine the number gets over 15.

Bets To Stay Away From

Who Will Be Drafted #1 Overall?

As with every draft, the ultimate question is what happens at #1 and is the case with last year, no one has a clue what’s going to happen there. Recent reports have come out that Kyler Murray is not going to go first overall but that could very well be a smoke screen put out there by Arizona for a multitude of reasons. If you think that buying into the hype is overreacting, keep in mind that this time last year, Baker Mayfield going first overall sounded absolutely insane. I think the Cardinals don’t even know what they’re doing until a couple of hours before the draft itself starts. The odds for which player at this spot are all over the place so I would stay away from this one as possible. Too many possibilities with no indication of which one is the favorite.

How Many Quarterbacks Drafted In The 1st Round? Over 3.5, -320; under 3.5, +210

The weird thing with this draft class is the fact the quarterback class is just okay. Murray and Dwayne Haskins are clearly the top two with a steep drop off to number three which is universally agreed on as Drew Lock. Mock drafts with multiple outlets have Lock going as high as #10 to the Broncos or as low as #32 to the Patriots. Lock and Duke’s Daniel Jones are all over the place in mocks and some reports saying some teams have Jones as the #1 QB on their big board have just thrown more confusion in what could happen at the position in the 1st round. Personally, I think there will be four quarterbacks chosen in the 1st round but it wouldn’t shock me if it were only two. Bottom line: stay away from this bet, there are too many factors in play and your money is best placed elsewhere.

Where Will Josh Jacobs Be Drafted? Over Pick 25.5, -155; Under 25.5, +115

Josh Jacobs is likely going to be the only running back to go in the first round if he reaches that high. This bet is very strategically placed to trick the bettors into buying into the fact that a running back isn’t going in the top 15 meaning they won’t go into the 1st round at all. Fact is, starting at the 20th pick with the Steelers, it is not out of the realm of possibility Jacobs can go in the first. The Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, and Eagles are all in the 20-25 range and all have a need at RB so it is entirely possible Jacobs can go at any of those picks. This advice goes with any player whose rank fluctuates so much within the 1st round but it’s best to stay away from them when it comes to putting your money down.